How Is

Valence

Using AI?

Unified prediction markets terminal aggregating liquidity across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com.

Using cross-venue arbitrage optimization, ensemble probabilistic forecasting, and autonomous agent orchestration for trading strategies.

Company Overview

Valence is a unified prediction markets trading terminal and aggregator that provides a single interface, smart order routing, unified order books, and developer APIs to trade across all major prediction market exchanges (Kalshi, Polymarket, Crypto.com, etc.), solving liquidity fragmentation and operational complexity for retail, professional, and institutional traders.

Product Roadmap & Public Announcements

Valence has publicly announced unified order book functionality across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com; developer APIs for systematic and algorithmic trading; live P&L and risk monitoring dashboards; and smart routing for best-price execution. They have signaled expansion toward becoming a full "trading superapp" for prediction markets, with plans for deeper institutional integrations and strategy marketplace features.

Signals & Private Analysis

Behind the scenes, Valence appears to be investing heavily in AI-driven trading assistance and agent-based trading infrastructure, evidenced by hiring patterns in ML engineering and quantitative research. GitHub and developer community activity suggests work on strategy subscription models and vault custody integrations. Conference appearances and partnership signals point toward institutional-grade compliance tooling and potential white-label aggregation APIs for brokerages. There are strong indicators of upcoming AI-powered arbitrage discovery, whale tracking analytics, and copy-trading features designed to attract professional trading teams migrating from fragmented manual workflows.

Valence

Machine Learning Use Cases

Cross-venue arbitrage optimization
For
Revenue Growth
Engineering

<p>AI-powered smart order routing engine that automatically identifies the best prices and arbitrage opportunities across fragmented prediction market exchanges, executing trades at optimal speed and cost for every user.</p>

Layman's Explanation

Valence's AI instantly finds you the best price across every prediction market exchange so you never overpay on a trade.

Use Case Details

Valence's smart order routing engine uses machine learning models trained on real-time order book data from multiple prediction market venues—including Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com—to determine optimal trade execution paths. The system ingests streaming Level 2 order book snapshots, historical fill rates, latency profiles, and fee structures from each connected exchange, then applies reinforcement learning–based routing algorithms to split and route orders in a way that minimizes slippage, maximizes fill probability, and captures micro-arbitrage when the same event contract is mispriced across venues. The ML pipeline continuously retrains on execution outcome data (actual fill prices vs. predicted optimal prices) to adapt to changing liquidity conditions, venue-specific behavior, and market microstructure shifts. During high-volatility events—such as election nights or major economic announcements—the system dynamically adjusts routing weights and can pre-position liquidity signals to anticipate order book imbalances. This infrastructure is what enables Valence to process over 1 billion contracts and serve as the essential execution layer for professional trading teams who would otherwise need to manually monitor and trade across multiple fragmented interfaces.

Analogy

It's like having a travel agent who instantly checks every airline, finds the cheapest flight, and books it for you before the price changes—except for prediction market trades happening in milliseconds.

Ensemble probabilistic forecasting
For
Decision Quality
Strategy

<p>Machine learning models that aggregate and synthesize data from multiple prediction markets, news feeds, and social signals to generate real-time probabilistic forecasts and actionable trading signals for users.</p>

Layman's Explanation

Valence uses AI to crunch data from every prediction market and news source to tell you which bets are most likely underpriced before the crowd catches on.

Use Case Details

Valence's predictive analytics engine builds ensemble machine learning models that fuse pricing signals from all connected prediction market venues with external data streams—including real-time news APIs, social media sentiment (Twitter/X, Reddit), economic indicator releases, polling data, and historical event outcome patterns. The system uses a combination of gradient-boosted trees (XGBoost/LightGBM) for structured feature-based forecasting and transformer-based NLP models for parsing and weighting breaking news and social sentiment in real time. A meta-learning layer calibrates the ensemble outputs against actual market-implied probabilities and realized outcomes, producing a continuously updated "fair value" estimate for each contract. When the model detects statistically significant divergence between its fair value estimate and current market prices across any venue, it surfaces these as actionable trading signals to users—ranked by expected edge, confidence interval, and time sensitivity. The system also powers Valence's analytics dashboards, including whale tracking (detecting large positional shifts by sophisticated wallets), market momentum indicators, and scenario analysis tools that let institutional users stress-test portfolios against correlated event outcomes. This capability transforms Valence from a pure execution layer into an intelligence platform, increasing user stickiness and positioning it to offer premium strategy subscription tiers.

Analogy

It's like having a sports analyst who watches every game, reads every stat sheet, and whispers in your ear which team the oddsmakers are underrating—except it does this across thousands of real-world events simultaneously.

Autonomous agent orchestration
For
Product Differentiation
Product

<p>A platform layer enabling users to deploy, manage, and monitor autonomous AI trading agents that execute customizable prediction market strategies across all connected venues without manual intervention.</p>

Layman's Explanation

Valence lets you set up AI trading bots that automatically buy and sell prediction market contracts across every exchange based on your chosen strategy—so you can trade while you sleep.

Use Case Details

As AI agents account for over 30% of wallets on platforms like Polymarket, Valence is building dedicated infrastructure to let users—from retail hobbyists to professional quant teams—deploy autonomous trading agents through its unified platform. The agent infrastructure provides a managed runtime environment where users can configure pre-built strategy templates (e.g., mean-reversion arbitrage, momentum following, news-reactive hedging) or upload custom agent logic via Valence's developer APIs. Each agent operates within a sandboxed execution environment with defined risk parameters (position limits, drawdown stops, venue allocation rules) and connects to Valence's smart routing layer for multi-venue execution. The ML component powers the pre-built strategy templates themselves—using reinforcement learning agents trained on historical prediction market data to learn optimal entry/exit timing, position sizing, and cross-venue allocation under varying market regimes. A monitoring layer uses anomaly detection models to flag agent behavior that deviates from expected performance envelopes, automatically pausing agents that trigger risk thresholds. Valence plans to layer on a strategy marketplace where top-performing agent configurations can be shared or sold as subscriptions, and a copy-trading feature where users can mirror the positions of high-performing agents or human traders. This positions Valence not just as a trading terminal but as the operating system for autonomous prediction market participation—a critical differentiator as the sector shifts toward algorithmic and agent-dominated trading.

Analogy

It's like setting up a fleet of self-driving cars that each know a different shortcut through the city—you pick your destinations and risk tolerance, and they handle all the driving across every road simultaneously.

Key Technical Team Members

  • Neo Wang, Founder
  • Daniel Kasabov-Nouvion, Founder
  • Arthur Zhou, Founder

Valence combines first-mover advantage as the dominant unified aggregator in prediction markets with deep multi-exchange execution infrastructure (1B+ contracts traded), positioning it as the essential middleware layer that every trader,retail or institutional,must pass through as liquidity fragments across an exploding number of venues.

Valence

Funding History

  • 2025 | Product goes live, 7M contracts traded in September.
  • 2026 | Accepted into Y Combinator Winter 2026 batch.

Valence

Competitors

  • Direct Aggregators: pmxt (open-source SDK for unified trading across Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless), Polynance (data aggregation and analytics), FORS (cross-platform analytics), PolyRouter (order routing).
  • Single-Venue Platforms: Polymarket (largest crypto-native exchange), Kalshi (leading U.S.-regulated DCM), PredictIt (political markets).
  • Adjacent Competitors: Crypto.com (blended traditional/digital asset trading), FanDuel Predicts, DraftKings, Fanatics Markets
More

Companies
Get Every New ML Use Cases Directly to Your Inbox
Thank you! Your submission has been received!
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.